Pregame Stats for Week 10 between the Steelers and the Packers
The following matchup pits the 5-3 Pittsburgh Steelers against the 3-5 Green Bay Packers, both of which are coming off victories. Let’s get started with the match.
The Next Gen Stats (NGS) aggression metric, which measures the percentage of passes made into tight windows (when the defender is within one yard of the completion or incompletion), is led by quarterbacks Jordan Love of the Packers and Kenny Pickett of the Steelers. The ten NFL quarterbacks that are the most aggressive this season are shown in the following graphic, along with their completion percentages (team colour) and touchdowns/interceptions (orange):
Love has the lowest completion % of quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts (33 qualifiers) and the highest 22.3 rate in the league when it comes to throwing into tight windows. Pickett’s results were comparable, ranking 30th (fourth worst) with a 61.3 completion % and the second-highest 21.7 aggression rate. The image also shows a few elite quarterbacks and some who aren’t as good, which provides the group with excellent comparative perspective.
Positively, among quarterbacks with a high level of aggression, Pickett has the fewest interceptions, but on the other hand, his touchdown total is the third lowest. Love and Pickett are two of the ten with positive TD/INT ratios—the former having a double in each. This demonstrates a significant disparity in their play, with Pickett handling the ball well but not producing enough points to score, and Love being far more erratic.
The QBs’ air yards is yet another significant distinction. The following are air yards difference (AYD = completed – intended air yards) and air yards to the sticks (AYTS):
Pickett ranks 20th with a -1.3 AYTS and 21st with a -2.4 AYD (5.0 completed–7.4 intended), both below average. Love is second among just five quarterbacks to throw at or past the sticks, so there will be a lot more short-area throwing.
Hopefully, Love’s deeper passing can be curbed because Pittsburgh’s defence has been vulnerable to big plays. There is hope for that given his lowest completion rate and last ranking of -3.4 AYD (5.7 completed–9.1 intended). I hope the Steelers prevail in that crucial game.
Reuben Green Bay’s leading guy, Aaron Jones, has only played in five games thus far due to a hamstring injury.Despite playing in all eight games, A.J. Dillon’s production was subpar (3.8 and 3.3 yards per attempt). Jones has the advantage in touchdowns (two), and he has committed an equal number of fumbles (one in each of the previous two games), which Pittsburgh’s defence is hoping to repeat, and Dillon has made one touchdown reception.
Let’s look more closely at rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and NGS efficiency (EFF = total distance travelled per rush yards achieved; lower figures indicate more north/south runners):
Overall, there is a clear association between north and south runners’ greater RYOE. Jaylen Warren of Pittsburgh, the only player in the game who is above average in both categories—ranking 14th in EFF and ninth in RYOE out of 47 qualifiers (minimum 50 rush attempts)—is an excellent example.
Along with his impressive performance, he finished with 87 rush yards (T-fourth), five first downs, four rushes of 10 yards or more, and three catches (8.3 YPR). PFF’s second-best grade for him was 91.1. This season, Warren has remarkably ranked first in forced missed tackles/att per PFF. The Steelers backs should continue to provide this kind of play against GB, who have missed a good number of tackles (19th).
Najee Harris contributed 69 yards, 4.3 yards per attempt, and a touchdown on the first drive to help Pittsburgh have their biggest running yardage game of 2023 (166) last week. The latter was particularly significant, with Pittsburgh suffering greatly early in games; ideally, this will continue on Sunday and in the future.
Harris is growing ahead in 2023, ranking 29th in RYOE and 31st in EFF. With three rushing touchdowns since the bye (none in the first five games), let’s hope the two continue to have a great day against a Packers defence that is tied for 16th in rush touchdowns allowed (seven) and 13th in rush YPA (4.0).
Jones and Dillon are positioned 35th and 37th in EFF and 38th and 39th in RYOE, respectively, on the leaderboard. Although not impressive on paper, it will be intriguing to watch if Pittsburgh’s run defence, which is tied for 26th in YPA (4.5) and significantly better in terms of touchdowns allowed (nine), can contain their run game as the former becomes healthier.
The Packers have some youthful promise at wide out.Romeo Doubs is the team leader in touchdowns (51) and targets (51).
Doubs is one of just 10 players to reach this feat with five in 2023, tying for sixth most at the position. Pittsburgh’s defence is aware of this, and they should be able to prevent him from entering the end zone.
Along with Doubs, rookie Jayden Reed has played in all eight games and is tied for second on the club with 38 targets and three touchdowns.Despite missing the season’s first three games, Christian Watson has 26 targets and one score.
The position utilisation is as follows:
With an astounding 18.0 IAY, which is second in the NFL (94 qualifiers, minimum of 23 targets), Watson immediately establishes himself as the Packers’ main deep target. However, the connection has been poor, with a dead last 46.2 catch rate. Hopefully, it holds true while facing Pittsburgh’s defence, which has allowed the second-most explosive plays allowed in the league (9.4) and is tied for 29th in terms of ADOT. Since Watson is an eight-year-old with 6.5 YAC, it will also be important to tackle at the catch point.
George Pickens of Pittsburgh, who finished with -1 yards and two catches after a poor individual effort, should have more of an impact in 2023. This includes his match-high 6.7 YAC (sixth in the league), targets (57), yards (512), and three touchdowns in addition to his 13.0 IAY (20th). Pickens and the position room might have a big game because GB’s secondary is hurt.
Diontae Johnson and Calvin Austin III, who rank 28th and 34th in YAC and 33rd and 41st in IAY, respectively, are likewise above average. The latter is especially promising because the offense’s short pass game necessitates the right amount of cunning and YAC, which has fortunately increased since Johnson’s injury return. On and on it knocks on wood.
Doubs is eighth in YAC but 36th in IAY, although Reed is above average in both categories (ranking 27th in IAY and 33rd in YAC). Steelers Allen Robinson II is ranked fourth in YAC and 82nd in IAY, both of which are far below average.
TE: Pat Freiermuth is still not with Pittsburgh.With 21 targets, including just three last week, Connor Heyward leads the position while Pickett is still finding other places to distribute. GA Luke Musgrave, a rookie, leads the competition with 35 targets:
Here are some of the difficulties Musgrave will face, starting with the fact that he has the best separation of any NFL tight end thus far. In addition, he ranks ninth in yards gained per completion and has a solid seventh-ranked catch rate. This season, he has gained 249 yards and just had his first touchdown game. This game is crucial, in my opinion, for Pittsburgh, which lost LB Cole Holcomb to injury during the season. The team will be missing his varied performance, so this battle will be important.
These are the OL PFF scores:
With several injuries highlighted by the dot sizes, GB performs best as pass blockers. In general, Pittsburgh is a better run blocker.
Packing RTZac Tom stands out as the exception, with a match-high 78.6 RBLK in addition to a 75.7 PBLK. He has given up the second-most pressures (17) and rushes (15) in the contest. Just one bag, but it faces the elite EDGE challengeWatt, T.J.
Conversely, since week one, we have seen a noticeable decline in both Rasheed Walker (72.1 PBLK, 53.2 RBLK) and Yosh Nijman (75.7 PBLK, 58.6 RBLK), the three-time pro bowler David Bakhtiari. Last week, the latter received his first start. Anticipate Alex Highsmith to play another outstanding game.
Their best interior starter, LG Elgton Jenkins (75.2 PBLK, 56.3 RBLK), has a C rating.The group is completed by RG Jon Runyan (63.3 PBLK, 49.2 RBLK) and Josh Myers (69.7 PBLK, 49.8 RBLK). In his second game back, Cameron Heyward will lead Pittsburgh’s DL in a strong run defence.
LBWith the former leading the team and RG James Daniels (61.1% PBLK, 64.4% RBLK), Isaac Seumalo has the most evenly distributed Steelers grades to date (65.3 PBLK, 64.3 RBLK). Not far behind is the intriguing issue involving the RT position, as rookie Brock Jones is scheduled to make his third career start, second on that side after Chukwuma Okorafor was benched. LT Dan Moore (57.6 RBLK, 34.3 PBLK) and C Mason Cole (56.1 RBLK, 31.3 PBLK) had the lowest marks by far.
Protection.I believe that two crucial data points in this contest are the takeaway rates and yards per play:
It is not good news for Pittsburgh’s offence, which is having trouble moving the ball, that GB is tied for fifth place in YPP. The Packers, who rank 24th in takeaway rate (9.4), haven’t made much of an impression on defence. Pittsburgh is tied for second place in the nation for that speciality (17.6%). Should proceed in light of the offensive shortcomings of the Packers, albeit they have given up 5.5 YPP, which ranks 25th in the league. I believe that explosives and takeaways will be crucial to another win in week ten.
